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USF (4-5; 2-3 American) at Charlotte (3-6; 2-3 American)
Saturday, Nov. 16 • 3:30 P.M. (ET) • Jerry Richardson Stadium (15,314) • Charlotte, N.C.
SURFACE: AstroTurf's RootZone 3D3 Blend
TV: ESPN+: Justin Kutcher (P-by-P), Reggie Walker (analyst) & Smacker Miles (sideline)
AUDIO: 102.5 HD2 The Strike & Bulls Unlimited (TuneIn)
SERIES: USF leads, 1-0
IN TAMPA: USF leads, 1-0, won 48-14 in 2023
IN CHARLOTTE: First Meeting
LAST TIME: USF won 48-14 in 2023 in Tampa
STREAK: USF, won one
USF GAME NOTES
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — It's mid-November. Time for the climate to cool (everywhere but Tampa?). Time for the college football landscape to hit its boiling point.
An elite dozen of the 134 Football Bowl Subdivision programs are bound for the 12-team College Football Playoff. Forty-three others already have achieved bowl eligibility (six victories or greater).
Meanwhile, 44 programs have either four or five victories (including the USF Bulls), meaning there's work to be done.
Nine others (including the Charlotte 49ers) are in desperate straits at 3-6. To go bowling, they must win out.
So, the stakes of Saturday afternoon's American Athletic Conference game — USF (4-5, 2-3 American) vs. Charlotte (3-6, 2-3 American) at Jerry Richardson Stadium — seem obvious.
Bulls head coach Alex Golesh isn't prone to dramatics, saying he's more concerned with improving every area of the team's performance following a 28-7 home defeat against Navy.
But clearly, there's great value for USF earning its second consecutive postseason appearance, both in perception and practicality (bowl teams get up to 15 extra practices, a nice perk heading into 2025).
If USF defeats Charlotte — then beats either Tulsa (Nov. 23 on Senior Day at Raymond James Stadium) or Rice (Nov. 30 at Houston) — it's a done deal.
Here are the keys to victory for USF against Charlotte:
Get Off To A Fast Start
Sound familiar? We've harped on this one for a few weeks now.
Here are the facts: USF hasn't scored any first-quarter points since Sept. 21, a streak of five straight games. During that stretch, the Bulls have been outscored 89-24 in the first half. Despite all of that, USF has twice come from behind to win.
But the Bulls must make it easier on themselves. Over the past five games, with 15 first-quarter possessions, USF's average starting position was the 26-yard line. Only two drives crossed midfield. No short fields. Not even close.
There was a 77-yard touchdown pass negated by a penalty and a missed 45-yard field-goal attempt. There was a lost fumble at the USF 30-yard line and a red-zone interception.
"I think it's a maturity and growth deal in terms of being able to start,'' Golesh said. "It's the understanding that the execution really, really matters. For us offensively, you tend to wear teams down as you go. With the element of tempo, if you execute early, you can really wear them (opponents) down in the third and fourth quarter
"If you don't execute early and you're having to come from behind, it's a different effect. Defensively, if you can get off the field early, you create some momentum. You're more energetic going out there every single time. I think it's (a lack of) football maturity where we haven't been mature enough to handle it. I think that's coaching. I think that's me. I think it's myself finding some methods to get it done.''
If USF gets the ball first and drives seven plays for a touchdown, it will do a world of good.
Win The Toughness Battle
Charlotte hasn't played since Halloween and enters Saturday on a 16-day break.
USF has played two straight weeks — a road win against Florida Atlantic, where the buses returned to Tampa at about 4 a.m., then an extremely physical home defeat against Navy.
The Bulls are banged up — just like every team around the country in mid-November — and it's possible that Charlotte is fresh and better-healed. As Golesh often says, "Nobody cares.'' Good teams find ways to deal with adversity.
But the post-Navy effect is real. The Bulls must be tougher than Charlotte.
"A year ago, when we got done with the Navy game (a 44-30 road win), it physically took a lot out of you,'' Golesh said. "Our strength coach, Geo (George Courides), said it meant even looking ahead to practice this week (a week ago) and knowing you've got to be really calculated in your practice plan. Because from what we learned a year ago, playing Navy took more out of you than playing against a really physical Alabama team.
"We tried to play a lot of guys (against Navy) because you've got to be disciplined and have all 11 hats at the ball. How you rebound and recover from a game like that is important.''
Limit The Explosives
USF defines "explosive'' plays as 15 yards or greater. Against Navy, despite surrendering a season-high 321 rushing yards (on a season-high 59 carries), Golesh felt the Bulls competed well. But the Midshipmen scored on runs of 60 and 20 yards, plus a 38-yard pass just before halftime, when a linebacker was caught out of position, allowing Navy to convert the critical play.
In the mind of defensive coordinator Todd Orlando, surrendering explosive plays will ruin even the best of efforts.
"I try not to beat guys down, but we're trying to play at a certain level,'' Orlando said. "If you say to yourself, that (defensive performance) was all fine except for that (a few explosive plays) … uh, no. You can't do it that way.
"That's true of all our possessions. We're chasing stopping the opponent and getting off the field. If you can lock in through 70 plays, but have lapses in four of them, guess what? You get exposed. If you give a team 14 points they didn't have to earn, you probably (lose). We can't have it.''
For the last month, USF's defense has shown flashes of potential, even dominance. But it can be undone by an explosive play or two. Against Charlotte, the Bulls must avoid those lapses.
Run And Protect The Ball
Charlotte's defense seems vulnerable against the run (ranking 113th nationally by surrendering 188 yards per game with five opponents surpassing the 200-yard mark).
After back-to-back nice efforts, the Bulls reverted to a sub-par rushing effort against Navy, managing just 60 net yards on 25 carries (2.4-yard average), a total that was boosted by a 35-yard run from quarterback Bryce Archie.
USF is capable of controlling the game on the ground with Kelley Joiner, Nay'Quan Wright and Ta'Ron Keith, a trio that enjoyed great success in recent games against UAB and FAU.
But whether the Bulls choose to run or pass, one thing appears certain. They must protect the ball and avoid critical turnovers — a major factor against Navy, when Archie suffered a pair of interceptions in Midshipmen territory, while also losing a fumble after a sack at the Navy 33-yard line.
"We missed on so many opportunities (against Navy) and that's really hard to swallow,'' offensive coordinator Joel Gordon said. "It was everywhere — in the running game, the passing game, with our protection. Now that's a good football team (Navy) and they beat us when they needed to, but we beat ourselves as much as they beat us.
"When you execute all the way down the field and you're kind of rolling, then you get a mistake and the drive ends, that really hurts you. You don't put points on the board. You lose that momentum and confidence. It sounds like a broken record, but when you move the ball across the 50-yard line three times and turn it over each time, that's going to be really hard to beat a team like that (Navy) or any team. We just can't let that happen.''
–#GoBulls–
