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USF (6-5; 4-3 American) at Rice (3-8; 2-5 American)
Saturday, Nov. 30 • 2:00 P.M. (ET) • Rice Stadium (47,000) • Houston, Texas
SURFACE: Artificial Turf
TV: ESPN+: David Saltzman (P-by-P) & LaDarrin McLane (analyst)
AUDIO: 102.5 FM/102.5 HD2 The Strike & Bulls Unlimited (TuneIn)
SERIES: USF leads, 1-0
IN TAMPA: USF leads, 1-0, W, 42-29 last year
IN HOUSTON: First meeting
LAST TIME: USF won first-ever meeting
EYE ON STREAK: USF seeks first three-game win streak since 2018, first in conference since 2017
USF GAME NOTES
HOUSTON — At the regular season's mid-point, the USF Bulls were 2-4. Their starting quarterback, Byrum Brown, was out with an injury. They were coming off a chaotic week after being banished to Orlando by the threat of Hurricane Milton, missing significant practice time, then dropping their second American Athletic Conference game.
"It's like two steps forward, one step back,'' head coach Alex Golesh said in the wake of a sleepy 21-3 defeat against Memphis at Camping World Stadium, a game that was relocated from a prime-time ESPN2 perch at Raymond James Stadium.
Golesh was asked an ominous question. What was next for the program?
"Keep plugging,'' he said.
The Bulls have done just that.
Heading into Saturday afternoon's regular-season finale against the Rice Owls (3-8, 2-5 American Athletic Conference), the Bulls (6-5, 4-4) have transformed their outlook by winning four of their last five games and earning the program's second straight postseason bowl bid.
Check out these numbers over the last five games:
* Total yards — 497.6 yards per game (vs. 349.7 over the first six games).
* Touchdowns — 29 (vs. 16 over the first six games).
* Sacks by the defense — 20 (vs. 10 over the first six games).
* Turnovers forced — 13 (vs. 10 over the first six games).
* 40-yard plays — 19 (vs. 10 over the first six games).
* Points scored — 208 (vs. 148 over the first six games).
Yowza!
"I'd be crazy naive to say that the schedule hasn't been drastically different, too,'' Golesh said.
USF's first four losses to Football Bowl Subdivision opponents in the schedule's first half — including Alabama, Miami, Tulane and Memphis — have a combined 37-9 (80%) record and the early schedule was ranked eighth toughest in the country.
USF's six opponents in the second half have not presented the same level of difficulty. The Bulls have responded posting victories over four of the those first five by an average of 25 points per game.
"I don't control the schedule,'' Golesh said. "It sets up the way it sets up. But we've played better and gotten more confident as the season went on. We've gotten healthier. The quarterback play from the middle of the season to the end has gotten better. We've created explosives and gotten turnovers on defense.
"It's a huge reason why you have to be process-driven and not worry about who you are truly playing or the circumstance. It's where we are and what are we doing to get better week to week to week? Our objective is to continuously get better and better.''
So, the Bulls now have a path to an eight-victory season — by beating Rice and winning the bowl game — which would be the program's best wins mark since 2017.
Here are the keys to continuing that improvement and defeating Rice:
Snuff Out Rice's Early Hope
The Owls obviously have a program in transition. Mike Bloomgren (24-52 career record) was fired on Oct. 27 and associate head coach Pete Alamar became the interim replacement. Tuesday, Rice hired Davidson coach Scott Abell, who had seven consecutive winning seasons and oversaw the FCS' highest-scoring offense in 2023.
Rice has dropped two of three games since Bloomgren's dismissal and would love to mount some positive momentum. The Owls showed some surprising life on Nov. 2 by defeating Navy 24-10 in a sloppy game that featured a five-hour, six-minute weather delay and more than 3 inches of rain.
USF can't allow the Owls to gain any early confidence. What the Bulls did last week against Tulsa — when the Golden Hurricane didn't earn a first down until their fifth drive and its first six possessions ended with two punts, two turnovers and two failed fourth-down plays. The Bulls broke out 28-0 in the first quarter, never looking back, and Tulsa was done.
The same recipe applies to Rice.
Put Pressure On E.J. Warner
The Rice quarterback is a familiar name — E.J. Warner, son of the Pro Football Hall of Famer (Kurt Warner), who twice faced USF when he played for that other Owls team (Temple).
Warner is capable of creating havoc with the passing game — he was 27-for-36 with 344 yards during the 2022 game against USF at Philadelphia — but he's not particularly mobile. To Rice's credit, the pass protection has been excellent (only nine sacks of Warner, who has 397 pass attempts and a 61.1 completion percentage with 2,280 yards and 14 touchdowns).
Meanwhile, USF has been getting after the quarterback of late, collecting 20 of its 30 sacks in the last five games. The Bulls rank 23rd nationally in sacks, a sore spot for a few seasons now, but their increasing ability to apply pressure is one of the biggest reasons for overall success. What's more: It's a shared accomplishment. Linebacker Mac Harris is the team-leader (four sacks) and 17 different players have contributed in that category.
If Warner can't get his feet set — or he is continually flushed from the pocket — it's a very good sign for USF.
Keep Feeding Kelley Joiner
USF's three-headed monster in the backfield — Kelley Joiner, Nay'Quan Wright and Ta'Ron Keith — has been effectively carrying the offense with a running game that ranks 21st nationally (198 yards per game).
But Joiner, nearing the end of his sometimes star-crossed six-season journey with the Bulls, has been a star. He has rushed for 477 yards (8.8-yard per carry average) and seven touchdowns in the last five games. Overall, he's at 747 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. He needs 253 yards to become the seventh USF player — and the first since Jordan Cronkrite in 2018 — to register a 1,000-yard rushing season.
Joiner has never seemed more confident. He's eager to finish with a flourish. The Bulls should continue making him the running-game focus. With Rice sitting at 94th nationally in rushing defense (165.3 yards per game), it's an area that could be exploited.
Take It Away
With five forced turnovers against Tulsa, the Bulls now have 23 overall (11 interceptions, 12 fumble recoveries) and a plus-7 turnover margin, meaning USF is on track for top-five program finishes in each category.
Not coincidentally, there's a direct correlation between USF's ability to create turnovers and win games. In USF's six victories, the Bulls have created 17 turnovers. In the five defeats, the takeaway figure is just five.
And in USF's last meeting with Warner, a 27-23 victory on Nov. 11, 2023 at Raymond James Stadium, the Bulls collected three interceptions, including one that was returned for a touchdown in the third quarter to provide the winning margin.
–#GoBulls–
